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Are audiences abandoning the likes of Gloria?

Anthony Kaufman at Indiewire discusses various reasons why audiences are not going to see foreign films.

Two points:

First, the article does not do a good job of proving that audiences are abandoning foreign language films. Picking two years out of a hat (2013 and 2007) and comparing the success of just the five most popular foreign language films smacks of cherry-picking. Using the same technique, I could say that through the first four months of 2014 the top five grossing foreign language films (excluding Bollywood and movies aimed at Latinos as the writer does) have outpaced the grosses of the top five foreign language films of the first four months of 2013. Hell, The Raid 2 (Indonesian) and Gloria (Chilean) by themselves pretty much do that.

By Kaufman's method of measuring audience strength, but picking different datelines, I could claim that he's entirely wrong and that the thirst for foreign language movies is actually surging. It may be the case that Kaufman is right and that audiences are abandoning foreign language films (which would not surprise as I discuss below), but the proof isn't in that article. Any one year could be the result of a particularly strong or weak set of films. And selecting just the top five grossing films means that a year where the grosses were strong but spread out across many movies might look bad in comparison to a year where the grosses maybe weren't so great but there were a few big hits.

Also, picking out two Almodovar films and comparing grosses doesn't work. Maybe I'm So Excited (47% Rotten Tomatoes) performed worse at the box office than Volver (92% Rotten Tomatoes) because the former was a worse movie? Or because Almodovar's reputation among film-goers and critics as an exciting filmmaker has dimmed considerably?  Kaufman's cherry-picking methodology is, to be frank, useless. We need to see some long-term trendlines that take into account all foreign language films. That fewer people went to see the top five foreign language films of 2006 than the top five foreign language films of 2013 tells us little about audience trends, but only about the relative success of ten movies.

Second, I nonetheless believe, based mainly on anecdotal evidence, that Kaufman may have a point. I'd say audiences are not actually going to see much these days, other than blockbusters, children's films, and Christian films - as in going outside of their homes. At least that's the way it appears to me as I go to several movies in theaters per week and sit in audiences where ten people is now considered a crowd and a half-full theater feels like a special event. And if it is a foreign language film, I can almost count on being one of the few ones, if not the only one, under 40.

Beyond studio mega-films, and certain categories of niche content, for most of the year VOD is fast becoming the lifeblood of the feature film industry.  For many "indie" and smaller films, theatrical release is just a marketing expense so that they get in the "See it Now While It's In Theaters" category on VOD. If people actually show up to the theaters it's just a bonus to defray whatever they had to pay to the exhibitor or for the DCP.

Sure, there are plenty of structural problems/issues, but to get people into theaters, there have to be films that get them there and distributors that care about theatrical releasing. I'd argue the chief reason why audiences seem to be not showing up to smaller or foreign films is because there aren't enough out there that provide the social capital to people such they they feel like they gain some cachet by telling their friends "I saw that," and, particularly, "I saw that in the theater." That goes for foreign films as well as English-language films. Filmmakers of all stripes and languages need to shake things up if they want to attract audiences without a hundred million dollar Disney marketing budget (and the resulting brand placement on nearly every frame).

Now, for a couple months each year - November and December mostly - people do show up even to non-tentpoles, but a lot of that is because studios pack all their quality films into that period, the films often have big stars, and the studios actually expend some marketing muscle to get people into theaters rather than to press a button on their remote control.

Smaller companies do not necessarily have the marketing budget or the star power to mimic that late year Oscar push model. Especially with foreign language films. So if distributors want to get people into the theaters for arthouse, foreign film, and independent  films for the rest of the year, they have to find product that itself creates a buzz and that is able to build some cultural cachet so that people feel like they need to actually go see it.

Distributors also need to somehow get younger tastemakers out there back on board with theatrical films rather than spending so much time on the latest HBO series or whatever else is on TV that everyone is buzzing about. Which will most certainly come with more provocative films or films that take advantage of the larger canvas in ways that matter. Finally, it would also help if the distributors themselves commit to theatrical rather than viewing it as a way to boost VOD sales, but maybe that ship has sailed.

I can't be sure that foreign films are being rejected by U.S. audiences, but it certainly feels like the audiences are dwindling, as with most movies. In my view, the easiest way to stop that bleeding is with the product on the screen. Make interesting material that people feel they can't miss, and people won't miss it.